For humanitarian aviation, the main concern is how many crises could unfold at the same time. Flooding in the southern United States<\/a>, fire risk across the Amazon<\/a> and food emergencies on several continents could all draw on the same pool of suitable aircraft, airport capacity and specialist resources. Aid agencies increasingly act on forecasts like these, and with good reason \u2013 WFP estimates that every US$1 invested in anticipatory action can result in up to US$7 in avoided losses<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n From forecast to flight plan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n Knowing that a storm is coming is useful, but planners need to know what it will do to the places aid has to pass through. Can the nearest airport stay open? Will aid be able to move onward from there, and how many people depend on the route in question?<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cForecasts give us a window to get our plans in order before we lose access,\u201d Bolton-Wilson says. \u201cIf you start planning once that has already happened, it\u2019s a race against the clock with far fewer options.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n What can be planned before a crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Bolton-Wilson, more can be done in advance than many organizations realize. Aircraft options, alternative airports, regional staging locations, operating permissions, indicative costs and mobilization procedures can all be assessed before an emergency. Documenting these assessments also helps organizations justify early investment of time and resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One option Chapman Freeborn is currently assessing is a retained aviation readiness arrangement. Such a model could combine data-driven risk monitoring with aviation specialists supporting an organization\u2019s crisis management team remotely. If developed, this approach could allow commercial terms and activation procedures to be agreed in advance, while keeping the final aircraft selection, routing and deployment timing flexible as conditions develop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Common planning mistakes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Securing an aircraft does not mean the logistics problem has been solved. Aid still depends on permits, ground handling, fuel, functioning local infrastructure and transport waiting at the destination. Conditions can also remain unpredictable for hours or days after the immediate event has passed.<\/p>\n\n\n Planning is further complicated by regional conflicts and airspace closures, which can force longer routings and increase operating costs. Humanitarian flights already face limited budgets, while fuel shortages and sharp fluctuations in jet fuel prices can make urgent operations even more difficult to fund and execute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another common pitfall is the tendency to wait for absolute certainty. For example, early warning systems had flagged a likely food crisis in the Horn of Africa in August 2010. However, substantial response only started in July 2011, once famine had been officially declared in Somalia. A report published by Oxfam and Save the Children<\/a> concluded that risk aversion had delayed the effort by six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While anticipatory action is becoming more common across the humanitarian sector, aviation is still often treated as a reactive procurement need. Bolton-Wilson believes it should be integrated into preparedness planning from the beginning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When Hurricane Melissa approached Jamaica in October 2025, Chapman Freeborn began preparing before the storm made landfall. The team checked aircraft availability in the region and adapted the response as conditions developed. The operation ultimately involved fixed-wing flights for personnel, specialist helicopters and an Antonov AN-12 carrying critical communications equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe key was sourcing the right aircraft for each stage,\u201d Bolton-Wilson says. \u201cThe AN-12 proved particularly useful because it loads from the rear and carries its own cargo-handling equipment, giving the team greater flexibility at airports already under strain.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The last few miles<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n It is often easier to get aid into a country than to move it from the airport to the communities that need it. An aircraft may land on schedule, but damaged roads, fuel shortages, limited handling equipment or a lack of onward transport can prevent the cargo from reaching its destination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/stateaviationjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/El-Nino-2026\u201327-Chapman-Freeborn.png\")
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